Barça remains the favorite in the predictions to win the Champions League!

The advanced statistics based on the calculations of Opta's Supercomputer elevate FC Barcelona as the main candidate to lift what would be their sixth UEFA Champions League crown next May 31 in Munich. 

After the second leg of the quarterfinals against Borussia Dortmund (3-1), the 'culés' maintain a 54.7% chance of reaching the final, while their chances of keeping the 'big-eared' trophy as of April 15 are 27.8%.

Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, now occupies the second place among the favorites to win the Champions League. Thanks to their qualification against Aston Villa (5-4), Luis Enrique's team has a 49.9% chance of reaching the final against Barça. Regarding the title, their percentage of being European champion for the first time is 25.7%.

Why is Barça the favorite to win the Champions League?

In the semi-finals, Barça must face Inter Milan or Bayern Munich. The Italians, with an advantage after the first leg in Munich (1-2), have 16.6% chance of winning the Champions League. The Bavarians, on the other hand, barely add 4.2% of options, only ahead of Real Madrid (1.8%).

In principle, Arsenal would be PSG's rival in the other semi-final. The 'gunners' are the third favorite for the title with a 24.3% probability of lifting their first 'big-eared' trophy, after winning the first leg in London by 3-0.

However, Opta's Supercomputer keeps Barça as the main candidate for the title due to the great moment of the 'culés' this 2025. Tuesday was Hansi Flick's team's first defeat this 2025 in 25 matches in all competitions.

In addition, the 'azulgrana' team is leader in victories (9) and goals scored (37), with an impressive average of 3.08 goals per game. Barça had not fallen since their debut in the group stage against Monaco and advanced to 'semis' with a two-goal advantage (5-3).

⚽These are the percentages for the teams alive in the Champions League, according to Opta:

1. FC Barcelona: 27.8% (chances of keeping the title).
2. Paris Saint-Germain: 27.7%
3. Arsenal: 24.3%
4. Inter Milan: 16.6%
5. Bayern Munich: 4.2%
6. Real Madrid: 1.8%

To determine their percentages, Opta's Supercomputer simulates the competition 10,000 times, based on the odds of the betting market and the Opta Power Rankings, according to the historical and recent results of each team.

Barça's road to the Champions League semi-finals

⚽Statistical summary:

• Matches played: 12
• Victories: 9
• Draws: 1
• Defeats: 2
• Goals scored: 37 (3.08 per match)
• Goals conceded: 17 (1.41 per match)
• Top scorer: Raphinha (12)
• Leader in assists: Raphinha (7)