Is Opta Wrong About Barça? Unexpected Turn in Their Prediction for the Champions League Champion

The world of predictions can change radically in a matter of minutes. This has been demonstrated by Opta's Supercomputer, whose projections for the UEFA Champions League 2024-25 have taken an unexpected turn after the semi-final matchups were announced.

As we mentioned in FCBN, before the official announcement of the UEFA Champions League semi-final pairings, FC Barcelona was the favorite to win the title. However, after learning that the Azulgrana team will face Inter Milan and that Arsenal will face Paris Saint-Germain, the algorithm has drastically changed its priorities.

The new order of favorites to win the Champions League: the unexpected position of the Culé team

Surprisingly, Barcelona has become the team with the least chance of winning the tournament, according to Opta's latest statistical analysis. This is the new ranking of favorites:

• Arsenal: 28.7%
• Inter Milan: 25.5%
• Paris Saint-Germain: 24.0%
• FC Barcelona: 21.8%

A complete turnaround that raises doubts about the criteria of the predictive model and the perception of the teams' recent performance.

With the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals done and dusted, we're now left with the final four teams.

Who will win the competition? Here's what the Opta supercomputer thinks after tonight...

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 16, 2025

The impact of the quarter-finals on the predictions

This change is partly explained by what happened in the quarter-finals. Arsenal was the most solid team in this phase, authoritatively defeating Real Madrid both in the first and second legs. At the Emirates Stadium, the 'Gunners' won 3-0 with a double by Declan Rice and another goal by Mikel Merino. At the Santiago Bernabéu, they completed the feat with a 1-2 victory thanks to goals from Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.

Inter Milan, on the other hand, also left a powerful impression. They defeated Bayern Munich 1-2 at the Allianz Arena with goals from Lautaro Martínez and Davide Frattesi. In the return leg, they achieved a valuable 2-2 draw at the Giuseppe Meazza, with goals also from Lautaro and Benjamín Pavard, maintaining their unbeaten record in the tie.

A brilliant Barcelona... but with shadows

Barça experienced a two-sided tie. In the first leg, they crushed Borussia Dortmund with an impressive 4-0 victory thanks to a double by Robert Lewandowski and goals from Lamine Yamal and Raphinha. However, in the return leg, they fell dramatically 1-3 in Germany, in a lackluster match, where their only goal in favor was an own goal by Ramy Bensebaini. This setback may have weighed on Opta's new estimate, even though the aggregate (5-3) was more than enough to advance comfortably.

Paris Saint-Germain also experienced a tight series against Aston Villa. They won 3-1 at the Parc des Princes and lost 3-2 at Villa Park, but advanced on away goals. Despite that partial defeat, their overall performance was more consistent than that of Barcelona, something that would also have influenced the supercomputer's ranking.

Is FC Barcelona being underestimated?

Despite the numbers, many believe that FC Barcelona is being underestimated. They have demonstrated enormous consistency and a very high competitive level, eliminating heavyweight rivals and finishing second in their group. The Azulgrana team is experiencing a brilliant moment, dreams of the treble and has more than enough arguments to aspire to everything. Does it really deserve to be in the last position among the semi-finalists? It is a question that, perhaps, can only be answered on the field.