CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2024-25
Champions League 2024-25: Barça leads Opta's projections and Madrid collapses in the numbers
Published:10/04/2025 - 21:31h
Updated:12/04/2025 - 07:11h
Barcelona dominates Opta's predictions with a 99.5% chance of advancing after thrashing Dortmund
FC Barcelona, after their overwhelming victory over Borussia Dortmund (4-0) in the first leg of the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League 2024-25, has seen its chances of continuing to transcend in the most prestigious European club competition of the Old Continent increase significantly. Even the predictions of sources such as the OptaAnalyst supercomputer already give it a lot of strength in its candidacy to reach the final of the tournament.
Barcelona leads the odds to advance to the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League 2024-25
According to the metrics of this portal, FC Barcelona is the team with the highest chances of qualifying for the semifinals (99.5%). It surpasses its closest pursuer, Arsenal, who after crushing Real Madrid 3-0 in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals, follows with a 95.7% chance.
It should be noted that, according to these same statistics, the 'Gunners' have slightly better chances of advancing to the final (52.9%) than FC Barcelona (51.7%). As for being champions of the tournament, the English also lead the projections with 27.8%, while the Catalan team registers 25.9%.
The podium of favorites is completed by Paris Saint-Germain, who comes from beating Aston Villa 3-1. For Opta, the French team has a 91.5% chance of reaching the semifinal, a 42.9% chance of reaching the final and a 21.9% chance of becoming the monarch of the tournament.
| N° | TEAM | SEMIFINALS | FINAL | CHAMPION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal (ENG) | 95.7% | 52.9% | 27.8% |
| 2 | FC Barcelona (ESP) | 99.5% | 51.7% | 25.9% |
| 3 | Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) | 91.5% | 42.9% | 21.9% |
| 4 | Inter Milan (ITA) | 82.7% | 41.5% | 19.8% |
| 5 | Bayern Munich (ALE) | 17.3% | 6.7% | 3% |
| 6 | Real Madrid (ESP) | 4.3% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 7 | Aston Villa (ENG) | 8.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 8 | Borussia Dortmund (ALE) | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0% |
Real Madrid, almost eliminated according to predictions
Surprisingly —or perhaps not so much, seeing the poor play of the 'merengue' team—, Opta's statistical model gives them just a 4.3% chance of reaching the 'semis', having to come back from a 3-0 deficit at home. Beyond that, their chances of reaching the final are reduced to 2% and, even more so, their chances of being champion are at a tiny 0.9%.
Records that only worsen —although not by much— for teams like Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund. Numbers that reflect the hard work ahead for a Real Madrid forced to perform a miracle if they want to stay alive in their favorite competition.
