How will Barcelona do? The mathematical prediction on how the Champions League will turn out

The official start of the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 is getting closer. A tournament that in this edition will feature a revamped format, consisting of a group stage with 36 teams playing eight games each, four at home and four away. The top eight teams will directly qualify for the next phase, while the remaining eight spots will be determined through a playoff between the teams placed ninth to twenty-fourth in the standings.

As we approach the start of this tournament, set for September 17th, it's common for predictions and projections from various sectors to emerge in an attempt to foresee the position of their favorite team or the overall standings. Some base their predictions on knowledge and intuition, while others turn to more advanced tools like statistics to make numerical forecasts.

It is at this point where names like Piotr Klimek, a mathematics specialist at 'Football Rankings,' come into play, who has conducted a study using advanced statistics to predict the position of each club in this new group stage format. Here at FCBN, we present the results of this study conducted by the Polish professional.

How would the 'top 8' of the Champions League 2024/25 group stage look according to this prediction?

According to Klimek's study, Manchester City is positioned as the top qualifier in the group stage of the 2024/25 Champions League, with an average of 18.38 points and an 88.9% chance of making the top eight. Who would be their 'runner-up'? Real Madrid, projected to secure the second position with an average of 16.23 points and a 64.9% chance of being in the 'top 8'.

The third place would go to Bayern Munich (16.2 points - 99.1%), the fourth to Inter Milan (15.41 points - 97.7%), the fifth to Atalanta (15.17 points - 97.2%), the sixth to Arsenal (14.84 points - 97.8%), the seventh to Borussia Dortmund (14.89 - 96.7%), and the eighth to FC Barcelona with 14.87 points and a 96.7% chance of making the 'top 8'.

How would the playoff phase be arranged to qualify for the round of 16 in the Champions League 2024/25?

Furthermore, this prediction provides an overview of the 16 playoff matchups to determine the other eight teams advancing to the round of 16. In this scenario, matches would involve Bayer Leverkusen (9th) against Celtic (24th), AC Milan (10th) against SL Benfica (23rd), Stuttgart (11th) against AS Monaco (22nd), Liverpool (12th) against Sporting CP (21st), Atletico Madrid (13th) against Bologna (20th), RB Leipzig (14th) against Girona (19th), Paris Saint-Germain (15th) against Juventus (18th), and PSV Eindhoven (16th) against Aston Villa (17th).

Which teams would be eliminated from the group stage of the Champions League 2024/25?

In this section, nine teams would be eliminated from this group stage: the LOSC Lille (25th), Feyenoord (26th), Stade Brestois (27th), Club Brugge (28th), RB Salzburg (29th), Sparta Prague (30th), Dinamo Zagreb (31st), Sturm Graz (32nd), Young Boys (33rd), Shakhtar Donetsk (34th), Crvena Zvezda (35th), and finally Slovan Bratislava in the 36th position, promising an exciting group stage. Now, we just have to wait and see if these predictions come true in the quest for the coveted Champions League trophy.