A new season of the UEFA Champions League is approaching, the most prestigious club tournament in Europe. In the 2024/25 season, it will introduce a new format, expanding from 32 to 36 teams and transitioning to a league mode where teams will play a total of eight matches: four at home and four away. This change marks the end of the group stage format that has been in place for the last 32 years.
With the arrival of the competition, it is common to see forecasts emerging about who will be crowned champion. Some sports analysis companies, such as 'Opta Analyst', use complex models to simulate the tournament results around 10,000 times. Based on these simulations, they determine each club's chances of advancing to the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, and the final, and even of winning the title. At FCBN, we bring you a summary of this analysis.
How would FC Barcelona fare in the 2024/25 Champions League according to 'Opta' metrics?
According to 'Opta' metrics, FC Barcelona is ranked as the sixth best positioned team to win the UEFA Champions League, with a probability of 5.2%. This means that in 520 out of those 10,000 simulations, Hansi Flick's team lifted the club's sixth 'Orejona' trophy in history.
Furthermore, the data suggests that the team reaches the final in 11.8% of cases (1,180 times out of 10,000). Additionally, it is projected to reach the semi-finals in 25.4% of instances (2,450 out of 10,000), the quarter-finals in 49.3% (4,930 out of 10,000), and the round of 16 in an impressive 83.3% (8,330 out of 10,000).
Which 'big' clubs does Barça surpass in this ranking?
In terms of title-winning chances, Barcelona has more possibilities than other top clubs in Europe, such as Liverpool in seventh place with a 4.2% probability, Bayern Munich in eighth with 4.1%, Paris Saint-Germain in ninth with 4.1%, Borussia Dortmund in eleventh with 2.4%, Atletico Madrid in thirteenth with 2.2%, Juventus in fifteenth with 1.1%, and AC Milan in twentieth with 0.4%.
Which teams outperform FC Barcelona in this list?
In this category, FC Barcelona is only surpassed by Bayer Leverkusen in fifth with 5.4%, Arsenal in fourth with 6.3%, Inter Milan in third with 10.9%, Real Madrid in second with 18.2%, and finally, Manchester City in first place with 25.3% chances. This competition promises to be intense and exciting, and at FCBN, we will keep you informed of all the developments.