A PROBABILITY OF 58%
A simulation of statistics places Barça as LaLiga champion
Published:13/05/2020 - 09:35h
Updated:13/05/2020 - 12:54h
After several months of break, the clubs have returned to work thinking about the resumption of LaLiga. A simulation of statistics performed by the experts of 'OneFootball' places Barça as champion of the tournament
The crisis of the coronavirus has put in check to the campaign 2019-20, but after several months of planning, LaLiga already works to go back. During the confinement designed a protocol of security for the trainings of a peculiar 'pre-season', that has to serve to the players to take rhythm after too much time exercising home. Although the way will be long, do not are missing win to go back to play.
According to a simulation of statistics made by the experts of 'OneFootball', the FC Barcelona would obtain this year the title suspender belt. The championship detained with the Catalans in the first position after a combination of results, since in spite of losing the Classical of Santiago Bernabéu, an adjusted victory home against the Real Sociedad (1-0) had prize by the defeat of the Real Madrid against the Real Betis (2-1).
This prognosis gives to the culés 58% of possibilities to tie up the first place, by an at all desdeñable 39% of the 'merengues'. It is necessary to remember that with 11 days for recovering, only two points separate them, and both split like big favourites so much by feelings as by data. The estimate warns that it is not impossible that Seville or Getafe give the surprise, but only concedes them a scarce 5%.
The battle by the European zone also is hot, and Andalusians and Madrilenian could go out benefited. Beside Barcelona and whites, ensured with a 99 and 98%, would have 59% and 52% of options to be in the next Champions League. For the Europe League would remain Athletic and Real Sociedad, that empatan with 40% of probabilities and surpass to other applicants like Valencia and the Villarreal.
The algorithm takes into account the opportunities of each candidate taking like reference the strong points of the last 10 parties -previous to the stop-, like goals annotated and conceded so much home as it was, the shots to door or the factor field. After calculating more than 155.000 alternatives, even signals to those that could not avoid the descent, that would be RCD Espanyol (88%), Leganés (68) and RCD Mallorca (51).
A prognosis for the big leagues
The simulation also has made for the rest of big leagues, since all are slopes of his return less Tie it 1. This forecast also calculates how would have remained the French competition in case of not to have given by finished, and after signalling to Barça and PSG like winners of his respective tournaments, armours to the Liverpool (100%) and reinforces to Bayern of Munich (65%) and Juventus (58%).